History of the predictions table

The predictions table is the program’s list of observations that could kill it: for each observable it gives what standard physics expects, what the Broken-Born program requires, and the result that would end the claim. The table has appeared in three documents: ten rows in the lab notebook (#1 §9, v0.1), ten in the first consolidated paper (#9 §9, v1) and eleven in the current checkpoint (#11 §13). Between them, two rows were withdrawn when the Debt-3 calculation killed velocity clumping, a diagnostic row took their place, the lead row softened from an exponential cliff to a knee, a graviton row and a dark-sector row were added, and the retired soliton candidate joined the list of withdrawn predictions. This page records those changes so that a row number in an older document can be read correctly.

Status: Record — the tables themselves carry no provenance tags — #11 §13 is the current table; the tables of #1 §9 and #9 §9 are superseded and kept as the audit trail, and #11’s own v2.0 table survives only in the repository’s history.

What the table is#

Every version gives each row four entries: an observable, the standard expectation, the framework’s requirement and a kill condition. The lab notebook introduces its table this way: “Each row states what standard theory (ΛCDM + GR + generic WIMP/Yukawa-SIDM alternatives) expects, what BBT requires, and what kills BBT” (#1 §9; quotations from #1 on this page are transcribed from its LaTeX where it writes mathematics). ΛCDM is the standard cosmology of a cosmological constant plus cold dark matter, GR general relativity, WIMP a weakly interacting massive particle and SIDM self-interacting dark matter, here through a Yukawa mediator; BBT, Broken-Born Theory, is the notebook’s name for the framework. #9 §9 and #11 §13 open with the plain-language line “A theory is its list of ways to die”, to which #11 adds “updated”.

Not every row has a kill condition. Some are diagnostics, which assign dark matter to one branch or another whatever the outcome, and some are long-horizon, with a parenthesis in place of a kill. The current table, with a page per row, is on Predictions and kill conditions.

v0.1: the lab notebook’s ten rows#

#1 §9 had ten rows: σ_T(v) across halo masses, scattering anisotropy, velocity-space structure in halos, dynamical friction in dwarf cores, dark energy w(z), the fate of the expansion, direct detection and colliders, magnetic monopoles, photon dispersion and the early universe. Rows 1–4 belonged to conjugate matter, rows 5–6 to the dark-energy field τ, rows 7–9 were permanent nulls, and row 10 covered the dual gravitational sector in the early universe.

The notebook singled out three rows: “Rows 1, 3, and 7 are the flagship discriminants: no mainstream framework predicts an exponential scattering cliff, gravitationally-detectable macro-granularity of the local velocity distribution, and a guaranteed-null direct-detection program” (#1 §9). Its one-paragraph summary claimed “kill conditions in every row of §9” (#1 §12).

Two of the three flagships rested on assumptions the program later tested. Row 1’s cliff came from a Gaussian gate that was a postulate, and row 3’s granularity, with row 4’s friction suppression, from the expectation that the gated attraction would act collectively on a halo (Obituary: velocity clumping, the founding image).

Debt 3: two rows withdrawn, one added#

Debt 3 tested the collective behaviour behind rows 3 and 4 and found it nowhere required (the net theorem). The withdrawal came in three steps, through the Debt-3 calc notes.

1. Calc note #2. On the particle island, “Rows 3 (velocity granularity) and 4 (condensed cores / Fornax friction suppression) are withdrawn, and with them the mechanism-level linkage claimed between them” (notes/debt3a-stream-stability.md, ‘Consequences for the predictions table’). Rows 1–2 “survive — they are collisional”.
2. Calc note #3. On the wave island the coupling could be fixed by dwarf-galaxy cores, and then “The surviving descendant of old rows 3–4” was a signature in ultra-faint dwarf galaxies (notes/debt3b-wave-island.md, ‘What pins g? Two scenarios’). That scenario failed against the observed ultra-faint dwarfs (Obituary: Scenario A and the ultra-faint-dwarf endpoint).
3. Calc note #4. “Rows 3 and 4 of the predictions table are permanently withdrawn, on both islands. The Fornax mechanism goes with them.” (notes/debt3c-ufd-endpoint.md, ‘Verdict and closure of Debt 3’).

The lab notebook’s v0.2 addendum records the result: “Rows 3–4 are struck from §9 permanently” and “A new row replaces them: cliff-sharpness island discriminant” (#1 ‘Addendum (v0.2, post Debt-3)’). It also lists what was left: “rows 1–2 (cliff, isotropy), the island discriminant, row 5 (thawing, no-phantom, DESI DR3), rows 7–9 (permanent nulls), and the geometric core awaiting Debt 1”, DESI DR3 being Data Release 3 of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument.

The two withdrawn rows have obituaries beside the claims they tested: Obituary: velocity-space granularity in halos (old row 3) and Obituary: Fornax friction suppression (old row 4). Both are indexed in the graveyard. The new row became row 3, the island discriminant.

Debt 1: the cliff becomes a knee, and a graviton row#

Two results of Debt 1 changed the table.

• Row 1 softened. Calc note #6 derived the gate from exchange of the momentum graviton X and found that generic vertices give power-law-tailed gates, which turned the cliff into a knee (notes/debt1a-ii-X-classification.md §4). Addendum v0.4 amends row 1: “the exponential cliff weakens to a sharp knee at v* with tail shape (Gaussian vs rational) diagnosing the vertex completion; the knee’s existence and location remain the robust prediction” (#1 ‘Addendum (v0.4)’). The requirement “cliff at v* ~ 120 km/s” became “Knee at v* ~ 10² km/s”, and the kill condition “v > 3v*” became “v ≫ v*” (row 1).
• A graviton row. Calc note #8 fixed the spectrum of the geometric sector. Addendum v0.6 gives the spectrum as “massless graviton = reciprocity-even, X = reciprocity-odd”, with the Standard Model safe by the Yukawa range of X and the bounds from gravitational waves “satisfied identically by the massless eigenstate” (#1 ‘Addendum (v0.6)’; on the parities under #11 §6’s Z → −Z⁻¹, see flag 39 in review/wiki-build-flags.md). v1 made this its new row 6 (row 6, the exactly massless graviton; spectrum and parity).

v1: ten rows again#

#9 §9 had ten rows: the island discriminant as row 3, dark energy and the fate of the expansion moved to rows 4 and 5, the new row 6 on gravitational waves, and rows 7–10 as before. Below the table: “Withdrawn with cause, permanently: velocity-space granularity in halos; Fornax friction suppression (rows 3–4 of earlier versions; obituary in §7).”

Besides the renumbering, v1 reworded most surviving rows. The changes of substance:

• Row 1: “Knee at v* ~ 10² km/s; tail shape = vertex diagnostic; zero cluster signal (particle χ)”.
• Row 3: “Knee sharpness: sharp cutoff ⇒ particle χ; (v*/σ)⁴ ⇒ wave χ”, marked “(Diagnostic, not a kill: identifies the branch)”, with the standard expectation “— (question not previously posed)”.
• Row 5: v0.1’s “Turnaround after V(τ)<0; AdS transition preferred by current quintessence fits”, AdS being anti-de Sitter, became “Turnaround after V(τ) < 0 = conjugate bounce” (row 5).
• Row 7: v0.1’s “χ has no non-gravitational SM coupling” became “χ (or X-condensate) has no non-gravitational SM coupling”, SM being the Standard Model, the first trace of a second dark-matter candidate (row 7).
• Row 8: v0.1’s “Permanent null (p-polarized solitons)” lost its parenthesis (row 8).
• Row 10: v0.1 read “a⁻⁶ step in G_eff; optional negative ΔN_eff from closed dual curvature” plus a conditional step in the primordial gravitational-wave spectrum, with the probe “CMB-S4 N_eff at ±0.03 probes the curvature term”. v1 reads “Optional a⁻⁶ G_eff step; closed dual curvature ⇒ negative ΔN_eff” and “(Bounds constrain knobs; CMB-S4 probes)”. CMB-S4 is a proposed cosmic microwave background experiment, whose current status is unchecked (flag 32 in review/wiki-build-flags.md; row 10).

The checkpoint, v2.0: eleven rows#

#11 v2.0 added row 11, “Dark-sector microstructure”, a diagnostic with the standard expectation “(not previously posed)”. In v2.0 the program had three dark-matter candidates, which the handoff calls a trilemma (“Dark-sector trilemma discrimination: particles vs X-condensate vs solitons”, HANDOFF.md §2), and the v2.0 table carried all three. As imported into the repository (commit 8d588f6), row 11 required “Particles / condensate / knots separable via rows 1–3 + compact-object lensing + coherence signatures”; row 7’s null covered “all three trilemma candidates SM-decoupled”; and row 3 was a diagnostic that “selects the branch, incl. trilemma row”. Row 8 became “Magnetic monopoles (ours)”.

v2.0 also shortened the wording and dropped four details that v1 had carried: row 1 lost “tail shape = vertex diagnostic”, row 2 “(halo relaxation morphology)”, row 5 “after V(τ) < 0” and row 6 “massive X short-range”. The first survives in #11 §8’s statement of the scattering law: “tail (Gaussian vs rational) diagnoses the vertex completion”. The third matters because whether the potential as written can go negative at all is unresolved (Open: the sign of V(τ) and the turnaround; review/wiki-build-flags.md item 27).

The checkpoint, v2.1: after round 3#

The round-3 review retired the third candidate, superheavy topological solitons, and found DESI’s second data release against the dark-energy row. #11 v2.1 (2026-10-19, commit e1c1f67) changed five entries of the table:

DR2 is Data Release 2. The DR2 clause puts the dark-energy sector under real pressure (row 4; root CLAUDE.md, ‘Since the handoff’). The soliton candidate’s obituary is Obituary: superheavy conjugate solitons. “P4 strict” refers to strict sector separation under postulate P4. #11 v2.2 (2026-10-20) left §13 unchanged.

The current list of withdrawn predictions (#11 §13): “Withdrawn with cause: velocity-space granularity in halos; Fornax friction suppression (obituary §9); superheavy-soliton dark matter (obituary §12).”

Exposure and novelty over time#

The rows the documents single out have changed with the table.

The v0.1 flagship row 3 is dead, and the cliff of flagship row 1 is now a knee. v1 lists among its progressive signs “novel predictions not previously posed (island discriminant; knee shape; even-eigenstate masslessness as a bimetric-parity statement)” (#9 §11). The program’s overall standing is on Assessment: a live research program.

Numbering#

The Debt-3 calc notes and #1 §9 use v0.1’s numbers, in which row 3 is granularity, row 4 Fornax friction, row 5 dark energy and row 6 the fate of the expansion. v1 and #11 share one numbering. This wiki uses #11’s numbers and calls the withdrawn rows “old row 3” and “old row 4”.

Superseded: the parameter count#

The lab notebook paired its table with a count of two parameters per sector against the phenomena each sector covers (#1 §10):

#1 §12 sums this up as “Two parameters per sector, kill conditions in every row of §9”, and v1’s plain-language abstract as “two free parameters per sector, kill conditions on every claim” (#9 §0). Two of the five conjugate-matter phenomena, stream granularity and friction suppression, belonged to the withdrawn rows. The count also predates the momentum graviton X, whose five βₙ coefficients reduce to two (calc note #8 §3; #11 §7.5; spectrum and parity). #11 keeps only the dark-energy row of the count, as the dark-energy over-constraint, two parameters for three observables (§10), and has no full parameter table.

Sources#

• papers/broken-born-checkpoint-v2.md §13 — the current eleven-row table and the withdrawn list; §15 — the exposure rows and the rows not previously posed; §12 — the two remaining candidates; §7.5 — five βₙ to two parameters; header — the v2.1 and v2.2 change notes. #11 v2.0’s table is quoted from the repository’s history (commit 8d588f6, the imported text; commit e1c1f67, the v2.1 amendment).
• notes/broken-born-program-v1.md §9 — v1’s ten rows and its withdrawn list; §11 — its exposure rows and novel predictions; §0 — “two free parameters per sector”
• notes/broken-born-theory.md §9, §10, §12 — v0.1’s ten rows, its flagships, its parameter table and summary
• notes/broken-born-theory.md ‘Addendum (v0.2, post Debt-3)’, ‘Addendum (v0.4)’, ‘Addendum (v0.6)’ — the withdrawal of rows 3–4 and the island-discriminant row; the cliff-to-knee amendment; the spectrum behind the graviton row
• notes/debt3a-stream-stability.md ‘Consequences for the predictions table’, notes/debt3b-wave-island.md ‘What pins g? Two scenarios’, notes/debt3c-ufd-endpoint.md ‘Verdict and closure of Debt 3’ — the withdrawal of rows 3 and 4, step by step
• notes/debt1a-ii-X-classification.md §4 — the downgrade from cliff to knee
• notes/debt1a-iv-beta-coefficients.md §3 — the five-to-two reduction of the βₙ that postdates the v0.1 count
• HANDOFF.md §2 — the dark-sector trilemma
• review/wiki-build-flags.md item 32 — CMB-S4’s status, unchecked; item 27 — the sign of the potential, which bears on row 5’s dropped “after V(τ) < 0”